Biden’s Medicare at 60 Proposal Could Cover 23M Under Medicare
Summary
Avalere analysis finds that former Vice President Joe Biden’s proposal to lower the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 60 could increase access to Medicare coverage for an additional 23 million individuals.On April 9, as part of a broader response to the economic downturn and unemployment resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden revealed a proposal that would make individuals aged 60 and older eligible for Medicare. Newly eligible individuals would have the option to enroll in Medicare, continue receiving health insurance through their existing source of coverage (i.e. employer, exchanges, Medicaid), or access insurance through Biden’s proposed public option.
By extending Medicare eligibility to individuals aged 60 and older, Biden’s proposal could potentially shift enrollment into Medicare from a variety of existing health insurance coverage sources, depending on consumer decision-making. Specifically, 13.4M individuals enrolled in employer-sponsored insurance, 3.8M in Medicaid, 3.2M in the individual market, and 600K in other government insurance programs (e.g., TRICARE, Veteran’s Affairs, Indian Health Services) could become eligible for Medicare under Biden’s plan.
Notably, Medicare expansion could provide access to another form of insurance for 1.7M previously uninsured individuals ages 60–64.
“Expanded Medicare eligibility could provide one more option to older Americans, helping reduce the number of uninsured or underinsured in the market,” said Chris Sloan, associate principal at Avalere Health. “Uptake will vary by state, depending on the cost of other forms of coverage, number of uninsured individuals over 60, and level of subsidies to reduce beneficiary out-of-pocket spending.”
Decisions to enroll in Medicare would depend on both the generosity and cost of Medicare plans compared to existing coverage, as beneficiaries will weigh relative cost sharing and premiums. The policy does not provide details on the availability of Medicare Advantage or Medigap plans for newly eligible beneficiaries.
| State | Total | Employer-Sponsored Insurance | Medicaid | Individual Market | Other Government | Uninsured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 23M | 59% | 17% | 14% | 3% | 7% |
| AL | 320K | 62% | 12% | 13% | 5% | 9% |
| AK | 50K | 53% | 24% | 5% | 8% | 11% |
| AZ | 470K | 51% | 21% | 14% | 5% | 9% |
| AR | 190K | 53% | 19% | 15% | 5% | 8% |
| CA | 2.7M | 52% | 27% | 14% | 2% | 6% |
| CO | 400K | 56% | 16% | 17% | 5% | 7% |
| CT | 280K | 66% | 16% | 13% | 0% | 4% |
| DE | 70K | 67% | 18% | 9% | 3% | 3% |
| DC | 40K | 54% | 30% | 9% | 1% | 5% |
| FL | 1.5M | 51% | 12% | 21% | 4% | 13% |
| GA | 640K | 61% | 10% | 13% | 4% | 12% |
| HI | 100K | 66% | 16% | 13% | 3% | 2% |
| ID | 120K | 59% | 8% | 19% | 3% | 11% |
| IL | 910K | 63% | 16% | 13% | 2% | 6% |
| IN | 460K | 64% | 14% | 13% | 3% | 6% |
| IA | 230K | 65% | 15% | 16% | 1% | 4% |
| KS | 200K | 68% | 6% | 16% | 3% | 8% |
| KY | 300K | 56% | 26% | 11% | 3% | 5% |
| LA | 330K | 53% | 24% | 12% | 3% | 8% |
| ME | 110K | 64% | 8% | 17% | 4% | 6% |
| MD | 450K | 68% | 15% | 10% | 3% | 4% |
| MA | 530K | 64% | 24% | 9% | 1% | 2% |
| MI | 760K | 64% | 18% | 13% | 1% | 4% |
| MN | 410K | 64% | 17% | 13% | 2% | 3% |
| MS | 190K | 54% | 16% | 14% | 4% | 12% |
| MO | 410K | 64% | 9% | 16% | 3% | 8% |
| MT | 90K | 49% | 16% | 21% | 5% | 10% |
| NE | 130K | 71% | 4% | 18% | 2% | 5% |
| NV | 200K | 55% | 19% | 12% | 4% | 9% |
| NH | 110K | 71% | 9% | 11% | 2% | 7% |
| NJ | 660K | 66% | 15% | 11% | 1% | 7% |
| NM | 150K | 48% | 29% | 13% | 5% | 6% |
| NY | 1.5M | 59% | 26% | 9% | 1% | 4% |
| NC | 660K | 60% | 11% | 16% | 4% | 9% |
| ND | 60K | 68% | 10% | 14% | 4% | 4% |
| OH | 880K | 65% | 16% | 11% | 2% | 6% |
| OK | 250K | 57% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 11% |
| OR | 320K | 55% | 22% | 16% | 3% | 5% |
| PA | 990K | 64% | 16% | 15% | 1% | 5% |
| RI | 80K | 59% | 26% | 11% | 1% | 3% |
| SC | 340K | 58% | 12% | 15% | 4% | 10% |
| SD | 60K | 65% | 3% | 20% | 6% | 6% |
| TN | 460K | 59% | 13% | 13% | 4% | 10% |
| TX | 1.7M | 58% | 11% | 13% | 3% | 15% |
| UT | 170K | 65% | 8% | 19% | 1% | 6% |
| VT | 60K | 55% | 23% | 14% | 2% | 6% |
| VA | 580K | 64% | 7% | 15% | 6% | 7% |
| WA | 540K | 60% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 5% |
| WV | 150K | 54% | 21% | 12% | 3% | 9% |
| WI | 440K | 61% | 14% | 18% | 3% | 4% |
| WY | 40K | 64% | 9% | 16% | 3% | 8% |
Methodology
To estimate the number of newly Medicare-eligible enrollees, Avalere analyzed the number of individuals aged 60–64 in each state by using the American Community Survey 2018 1-year sample of health insurance coverage in the United States.
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